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IPC Index — Mexico MarketWTI Crude falls as Iranian proposal raises hopes for renewed US-Iran negotiations
- WTI Crude falls after reports of Iran’s new proposal to the US aimed at ending the war.
- Ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to underpin geopolitical risk premium.
- Technically, WTI’s structure remains bullish despite easing momentum from overbought levels.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil eases on Friday, trimming part of the strong gains registered earlier this week as renewed diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war lift market sentiment. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $99, down over 3% on the day and pulling back from a seven-week high near $107.35 reached on Thursday.
The latest leg lower comes as reports suggest Iran has submitted a new proposal through Pakistani mediators in response to the latest US amendments, following Washington’s rejection of an earlier Iranian offer that proposed leaving nuclear negotiations for a later stage. While no details of the new proposal have been disclosed, the development has raised hopes that negotiations could resume.
However, uncertainty remains elevated as US President Donald Trump has maintained a hardline stance, insisting that no deal will be reached without addressing nuclear issues and vowing to continue the naval blockade of Iranian ports. CNN, citing an Iranian source, said Tehran could see talks restarting if the US lifts its blockade and Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking ahead, traders will continue to monitor developments in the US-Iran conflict, particularly any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, any meaningful decline in WTI may remain limited, as ongoing supply disruptions keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in Oil prices.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, WTI US Oil maintains a constructive bullish bias as price holds well above the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which all fan out in a positive configuration and reinforce an underlying uptrend structure. The Relative Strength Index around 56 has eased from earlier overbought territory, indicating that upside momentum is moderating but remains positive rather than exhausted.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 21-day SMA near $94, where a pullback could find buyers on a first test. A deeper correction would expose the 50-day SMA at $88 ahead of the more distant 100-day SMA around $74, which marks a broader trend floor. With the Average True Range (14) at about $6.57, volatility remains elevated but contained, hinting that any dip toward these supports would likely unfold within a still-bullish medium-term structure.
