Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to around 4.83%, its highest since November 2023, driven by growing bets of a rate hike next month. Momentum toward tighter policy picked up after last week’s strong jobs report, prompting markets to bring forward expectations for the next RBA move. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s inflation release, with the trimmed-mean gauge for the December quarter expected to rise 0.8% quarterly, lifting annual underlying inflation to about 3.3%, above the RBA’s 2–3% target. NAB data also showed that business sentiment rebounded and capacity utilization eased slightly, but constraints in key sectors kept the economy near its limits, leaving RBA inflation concerns intact. Markets now price a 60% chance of a February rate hike, up from 25% last week. For the first time in 15 years, Australia’s 2- and 10-year yields top the G10, likely boosting investor inflows.

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