Scotiabank analysts Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady against the US Dollar (USD) near 1.3800, with fair value for USD/CAD estimated at 1.3672. They highlight that technicals are showing a stalled rally near the 200-day moving average.

CAD seen steady

“The return to normalized market conditions should provide for some directional movement following Monday’s holiday related consolidation.”

“Our FV estimate for USD/CAD is currently at 1.3672, suggesting stronger fundamental levels for the CAD.”

“Bullish/neutral—USD/CAD’s latest rally looks to have stalled around the 200 day MA (1.3812), with intraday price action showing a clear flat range roughly bound between 1.3800 and 1.3820.”

“The stalling has been echoed in the momentum indicators, and we note a slight moderation in the RSI back toward the lower 60s. A bearish reversal from here would immediately target 1.3750, a level that roughly corresponds to the 50 day MA (1.3751). To the upside, we see limited resistance ahead of 1.3900.”

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