Rabobank strategists Jane Foley and Molly Schwartz note that speculative US Dollar (USD) positioning has slipped into net short territory for the first time since early March, after safe-haven flows linked to the Iran war had previously supported the Dollar. They highlight that stronger United States (US) inflation data have revived market debate over potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this year, which could lend some support to USD positioning in coming data.

Net longs flip short as Fed debated

“USD net long positions dropped into negative territory, having picked up the previous week.”

“This was the first time that net USD positions have been below zero since the start of March after which safe haven flows linked with the Iran war prompted a push into USDs.”

“Recently stronger US inflation data have underscored a debate in the market about whether the Fed may look to hike rates this year.”

“This may offer USD positions some support in the next data set.”

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