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Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD is trading at its lows of the year, pressured by broad Dollar strength, high energy prices and uncertainty around the French budget. While Eurozone activity and upcoming 3Q26 GDP data look relatively resilient, tighter lending conditions and weaker corporate loan demand raise downside risks for EUR/USD technical support levels.
Weaker lending clouds Euro outlook
“EUR/USD remains at the lows of the year as broad dollar strength and an unresolved French budget crisis dominate. “
“Energy prices are at their highs and look to go higher on the prospect of the US and Israel attacking Iran after next week’s US midterms. On the eurozone side, activity remains resilient and Friday’s release of 3Q26 GDP data should be relatively encouraging. “
“However, yesterday’s ECB bank lending survey showed tighter lending conditions and an unexpected fall in corporate loan demand.”
“It may be too early for the ECB to pour cold water on market tightening expectations at tomorrow’s press conference, but the risks look to be building in that direction.”
“This 1.1065/1110 area is quite important support for EUR/USD, below which technical analysts will be dusting off targets at 1.0880.”
“Even though the market is reasonably long dollars already, the reasons for EUR/USD to bounce from these levels are conspicuous by their absence.”
