Gasoline futures for delivery in New York Harbor rose toward $4.50 per gallon in late April, hitting their highest level since July 2022, as ongoing Middle East supply disruptions reduced crude availability for refiners. Although a ceasefire has mostly been held since early April, attempts to restart peace negotiations in the Iran conflict have failed.

A US-led blockade continues to enforce restrictions on Iranian maritime traffic, while Iran has also tightened its control over the Strait of Hormuz, with recent reports pointing to gunfire incidents involving commercial vessels in the area. As a result, shipping flows through the passageway have fallen to near zero, disrupting a key corridor that normally moves about 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined products. The US blockade of Iranian crude has extended supply pressures to Chinese teapot refiners, which had largely avoided disruption until mid-April due to their heavy reliance on Iranian feedstock.

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