Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 2.88%, nearing a March 2025 high just above 2.9%. Investors weighed the potential impact of a more hawkish-than-expected Trump nomination of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chief, while also focusing on the upcoming European Central Bank meeting, where policymakers are expected to assess the deflationary impact of a stronger euro. Last week, ECB policymaker Martin Kocher cautioned that further euro appreciation could prompt a resumption of interest-rate cuts. The euro recently reached a 4½-year high above $1.20 at the end of January, following US President Trump’s remarks that he was unconcerned about the dollar’s recent decline. Money markets currently assign roughly a 20% probability of an ECB rate cut in September and a 30% chance of a rate hike in April 2027.

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