The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) left its key repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for the second straight meeting and maintained a neutral stance during its first monetary policy decision of fiscal year 2026/27, amid a weakening rupee and rising bond yields. The decision was in line with market forecasts, as the Iran war threatened GDP growth and fueled inflationary pressures. India’s annual inflation accelerated to 3.21% in February 2026 but remained within the RBI’s tolerance band of 2%–6%, while GDP grew 7.8% in the December quarter. On the economic outlook, the RBI raised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025/26 to 7.6%, up from its earlier estimate of 7.4%, while inflation is expected to remain below the central bank’s target of 4%. Meanwhile, the GDP growth for FY26/27 is estimated at 6.9%.

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