Japan 10Y Yield Gains on Rate Hike Bets

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.89% on Monday, as markets continued to price a September Bank of Japan rate hike. Expectations for an early policy move have pushed Japanese yields higher, with markets now pricing an around 82% probability of a September increase, up sharply from about 23% before the BOJ’s July meeting. Markets are looking to Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s speech on Thursday for further signals on the timing and pace of policy tightening. Persistent inflation pressures have also reinforced expectations for policy normalization, while concerns over Japan’s fiscal outlook have added to upward pressure on long-term yields. The Finance Ministry is considering raising the assumed interest rate for calculating debt-servicing costs to 3.8% for fiscal 2027, from 3% in the current budget, highlighting the growing impact of higher borrowing costs on government finances.




