New Zealand Dollar slips under safe-haven US Dollar surge

• Safe-haven US Dollar gains on Middle East tensions despite Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz shipping deal.
• Mixed US economic data shows weak ADP payrolls but steady ISM Services PMI growth.
• Softer New Zealand jobs data limits aggressive rate hike expectations ahead of September RBNZ meeting.

NZD/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.5870 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from renewed safe-haven demand following an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon. The attack, which killed one person and injured 11, marked one of Israel’s deadliest bombings since the June ceasefire began. Israel’s military issued a displacement order roughly 30 minutes prior to the strike, stating it was targeting and destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in response to the group’s violation of the ceasefire terms.

However, the Greenback could encounter headwinds as market participants weigh reports of a new maritime agreement between Iran and Oman. The two nations are finalizing a joint statement on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, raising expectations for an increase in Middle Eastern energy flows. Although Tehran emphasized that the temporary two-to-four-month route does not mark a full reopening of the strategic waterway, the development has somewhat eased supply disruption fears.

US ADP private-sector payrolls rose by just 44,000 in July, a sharp drop from June’s revised 95,000 and well below the market forecast of 70,000. Conversely, the ISM Services PMI showed steady momentum, ticking up slightly to 54.1 in July from 54.0 in June, though it narrowly missed the expected 54.5 mark. Investors are now turning their attention toward upcoming economic drivers, specifically Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s pivotal Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces challenges as a softer-than-expected labor market report reinforced expectations that any further interest rate increases would likely be gradual rather than aggressive. Nevertheless, markets continue to price in a quarter-point rate hike in September, following indications from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) latest meeting that further policy tightening may be required to reduce monetary stimulus and bring inflation under control.

NZD and local yields slump as solid jobs data highlight lingering slack

Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman observe that the New Zealand Dollar and local yields have come under pressure even as headline labour data surprise to the upside. They note that “NZD and NZ yields slump” after “New Zealand’s solid Q2 job and wage growth” revealed underlying slack in the labour market. According to BBH, “employment surged 0.5% q/q vs. 0.1% in Q1, well above consensus and RBNZ projection of 0.1%, while private regular wages were up 0.7% q/q (consensus & RBNZ: 0.6%) vs. 0.5% in Q1,” with these stronger readings masking ongoing labour market slack that continues to weigh on the currency and rates.

Technical Outlook: NZD/USD maintains a constructive bullish tone near 0.5900

In the daily chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5870, maintaining a constructive bullish tone as spot holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 0.5858 and 0.5810. The alignment of the shorter EMA above the longer one reinforces a nascent uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 61 suggests firm but not yet overbought bullish momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at 0.5995, ahead of a stronger barrier at 0.6094, where sellers could attempt to cap further gains. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the nine-day EMA, followed by the 50-day EMA; a deeper setback would expose the horizontal floors at 0.5580 and 0.5486, levels that would need to hold to preserve the current bullish bias.

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