The offshore yuan weakened to 6.89 per dollar on Friday, reversing the previous session’s gains as a stronger greenback weighed on the currency. The US dollar advanced after major central banks warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could stoke inflation, prompting traders to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. In China, the central bank kept key lending rates unchanged for a tenth straight month in March 2026, with the one-year loan prime rate at 3% and the five-year at 3.5%. The cautious stance reflects mounting uncertainties, including surging oil prices driven by Middle East tensions, while China’s lower 2026 growth target of 4.5%–5% has reduced the urgency for monetary easing. Analysts said that higher oil prices could help China exit prolonged deflation, but they emphasized that, with weak demand or reduced industrial overcapacity, manufacturers may still face rising input costs. Despite Friday’s decline, the yuan is still set for weekly gains.

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