Palm Oil Pushes Above MYR 4,850 as Oil and Weather Risks Clash With Rising Inventories

Today Markets Analysis: Malaysian palm oil futures extended their gains above MYR 4,850 per tonne, supported by a weaker Malaysian ringgit, higher crude oil prices and growing concerns over dry weather in Southeast Asia. However, the rally is facing significant bearish headwinds, with Malaysian inventories at an eight-month high, production increasing and exports weakening.

The palm oil market is therefore being pulled in two directions: tightening future supply risks and stronger energy prices are supporting prices today, while weak exports and elevated inventories are limiting the bullish case.

Bullish Forces: Oil, Currency and Weather

Several factors are currently supporting palm oil prices.

The weaker ringgit is providing an important tailwind. Because palm oil is traded internationally in US dollars, a weaker Malaysian currency can improve the competitiveness of Malaysian exports and provide additional support to local futures prices.

Crude oil is another bullish factor.

Oil prices have moved above $100 a barrel amid persistent Middle East tensions and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Higher crude prices can improve the relative attractiveness of vegetable oils for biofuel production, strengthening the broader energy-linked demand outlook for palm oil.

Weather is also becoming increasingly important.

Extra-dry conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia are raising concerns about future palm production. While the impact on immediate output may be limited, prolonged dryness can affect palm yields and therefore tighten the supply outlook in subsequent months.

These factors create a credible bullish argument:

Bearish Forces: Inventories and Weak Exports

The biggest challenge to the bullish argument is the latest Malaysian supply data.

Malaysian palm oil inventories increased 7.5% month-on-month, reaching an eight-month high.

At the same time, production rose 1.4%, while exports fell 7.5%.

That is an uncomfortable combination for the bulls.

Higher production combined with weaker exports means more palm oil is remaining in domestic inventories. Unless export demand improves or production slows, the accumulation of stocks could place increasing pressure on prices.

Early September export data provides little reassurance.

Cargo surveyors reported that Malaysian palm oil shipments during the first 10 days of September were down between 11.7% and 17.5% from the same period in August.

This suggests that the weakness in exports may not have been limited to August.

India and China Add More Demand Uncertainty

Demand conditions among major buyers are also sending mixed signals.

In India, heavy edible-oil purchasing has created congestion at major ports, delaying vessel unloading as storage tanks approach capacity.

That could reduce near-term import demand because buyers may need to work through existing inventories before committing to additional cargoes.

China is another important variable.

August economic data was mixed, pointing towards an uneven domestic demand environment. As one of the world’s major palm oil buyers, China’s consumption trends remain important for the outlook.

The demand picture is therefore not sufficiently strong to offset the bearish signal coming from Malaysian inventories.

Dalian Edible Oils Limit the Upside

Palm oil is also facing competition from other edible oils.

Softer prices in Dalian’s edible-oil markets have limited the upside in Malaysian palm oil futures.

This matters because vegetable oils compete with one another across food and industrial applications. When competing oils weaken, palm oil can struggle to sustain a sharp rally unless it has a clear fundamental advantage.

For now, that advantage is coming primarily from energy prices and supply-side weather risks, rather than exceptionally strong physical demand.

Bullish vs Bearish Balance

The current market can be viewed as a battle between short-term bullish momentum and medium-term bearish fundamentals.

What Traders Are Watching Next

The immediate question is whether the bullish external factors can overcome the increasingly bearish palm-oil-specific fundamentals.

Traders should monitor:

• Malaysian palm oil inventories
• September export data
• Indonesian and Malaysian weather
• Crude oil prices
• Malaysian ringgit movements
• Indian import demand
• Chinese edible-oil consumption
• Dalian soybean and palm oil prices

A continued rise in inventories alongside weak exports would strengthen the bearish case.

Conversely, evidence of production losses from dry weather, stronger exports or sustained crude prices above $100 would reinforce the bullish argument.

Today Markets View

Palm oil is currently a two-sided market.

The move above MYR 4,850 per tonne shows that bulls still have momentum, particularly with crude oil above $100 and the ringgit weakening.

But the underlying Malaysian data remains difficult to ignore.

Inventories at an eight-month high, higher production and falling exports represent a substantial bearish counterweight. If exports remain weak through September, the market could begin questioning whether the current rally is justified by physical fundamentals.

The bullish case therefore depends heavily on future supply risks and energy prices, while the bearish case is already visible in current inventory and export data.

For now, the balance is cautiously bullish in the short term but fundamentally vulnerable to a bearish reversal if Malaysian stocks continue to build.

Bottom Line

Palm oil has extended its gains above MYR 4,850 per tonne, helped by a weaker ringgit, crude oil above $100 and concerns over dry weather in Southeast Asia.

However, the rally is facing significant fundamental resistance. Malaysian inventories are at an eight-month high, production is rising and exports are falling, while weaker competing edible oils and potential demand constraints in India and China add further pressure.

The next major signal will come from September export and inventory data. If exports recover while weather threatens future production, the bullish case strengthens. If inventories continue rising and shipments remain weak, the bearish case could quickly regain control.

Analysis by Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

Market analysis contributed by Currency Hedger, an Octalas Group division specialising in foreign exchange, currency risk and hedging.

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