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Arabica coffee futures remained below $3 per pound in May, far from last year’s record high above $4, as ample global supply, especially from Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest, kept prices under pressure. Though the harvest is still in its early stages, expectations of a sizeable crop have already been factored into markets. In late April, the Coffee Trading Academy forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 output to rise 12% year-over-year to 71.4 million bags. At the same time, demand concerns grew due to potential price hikes tied to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed and oil prices near multi-year highs.
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