S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico MarketCBT’s latest survey shows market participants holding a 23.2% inflation forecast for end-2026; this compares with 23.4% a month ago. It appears that inflation expectations may be softening slightly just as current inflation is softening, but it appears to be levelling off at c.23%, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.
USD/TRY grinds higher as inflation persists
“Forecasts further down the line – for example, for 24‑months ahead – are typically wholly unreliable; they follow a lazy pattern of approaching the CB target eventually (although this never happens in practice). In other words, the 23% is a more ‘active’ forecast – akin to a terminal rate which the market foresees at present. It is also the inflation rate one may calculate by annualizing from recent month-on-month price change.”
“What this means is that fresh price increases every month – after all these quarters of high interest rates – are continuing at a pace which is inconsistent with CBT’s mid-term targets. This is what we had warned about since the past year: that it might be easy to get the inflation rate down from 60% or 80% to 25% – because that 60% or 80% peak was a result of several covid-era one-offs – but the path to ‘true’ inflation targeting remains as elusive as ever. The same survey also shows the market anticipating 150bp rate cuts this month and again in March.”
“USD/TRY continues to creep up steadily on a daily basis.”
