Chart of The Day – Silver.XAG/USD

Silver is up more than 1.5% today, with the spot market still looking tight. It is worth noting, however, that this is not the only catalyst that can shape the next leg of the trend. Silver borrowing rates currently stand at 7.3%, but they were multiple times higher in the autumn, and have eased slightly in recent weeks.

• Given supportive fundamentals such as a structural deficit, solid industrial demand (boosted by data centers and the broader technology expansion), the ongoing rally in gold, and geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Iran), it is not out of the question that silver could move toward the upper boundary of its rising channel, around USD 82 per ounce.
• On the other hand, a key near-term risk is a potential rebalancing by commodity funds tracking broad benchmarks such as the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Following the recent rally, these funds reportedly reduced silver’s allocation within their buying mix from roughly 9% to below 3.5%, and possibly as low as 1.5% under more aggressive estimates. The rebalancing window runs from January 8 to January 14 and could translate into selling of approximately USD 4 billion to as much as USD 7 billion, potentially lifting volatility by several to even more than ten percent.

Beyond the rebalancing factor, the U.S. dollar remains an additional headwind. The dollar has been performing well recently, while the data suggest the Fed may remain cautious about cutting rates in the first half of 2026. That said, this is partly offset by “dovish” forces coming from the U.S. administration and Donald Trump, including the proposed USD 200 billion MBS purchase and the recently floated USD 1.5 trillion Pentagon budget. It would be difficult for the U.S. to finance an additional “above-normal” USD 500 billion without widening the deficit.

Silver (H1, D1)

Silver continues to climb, breaking above both the EMA200 and EMA50 (red and orange lines). A potential move toward the upper boundary of the price channel implies upside of roughly 5% from current levels. At the same time, the broader market picture suggests profit-taking pressure may gradually build after such a powerful rally.

Source: xStation5

Source: xStation5

The material on this page does not constitute financial advice and does not take into account your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation or any other specific needs. All information provided, including opinions, market research, mathematical results and technical analyzes published on the Website or transmitted To you by other means, it is provided for information purposes only and should in no way be construed as an offer or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument, nor should the information provided be construed as advice of a legal or financial nature on which any investment decisions you make should be based exclusively To your level of understanding, investment objectives, financial situation, or other specific needs, any decision to act on the information published on the Website or sent to you by other means is entirely at your own risk if you In doubt or unsure about your understanding of a particular product, instrument, service or transaction, you should seek professional or legal advice before trading. Investing in CFDs carries a high level of risk, as they are leveraged products and have small movements Often the market can result in much larger movements in the value of your investment, and this can work against you or in your favor. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved, taking into account investments objectives and level of experience, before trading and, if necessary, seek independent advice.

Register a Revolut Business Account