Financial markets are once again driven by global trade policy shifts, as the verbal breakdown in U.S.-China relations renews concerns about growth and competitiveness in the world’s two largest economies. Aggressive rhetoric from both Beijing and Washington casts serious doubt over the Geneva trade truce, fueling a strong return of risk aversion.
However, trade issues will compete for attention with a busy macroeconomic calendar, even on Monday. A stream of manufacturing PMI reports is expected throughout the day, along with key central bankers’ speeches (Powell, Lagarde), which will be especially important amid renewed trade tensions and related risks.
Economic calendar for today:
07:00 GMT – Switzerland – GDP Data (Q1):
- QoQ: forecast 0.4%; previous 0.2%
- YoY: forecast 1.5%; previous 1.5%
07:00 GMT – Poland – May PMI Report:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 50.30; previous 50.20
07:15 GMT – Spain – May PMI Report:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 48.3; previous 48.1
07:30 GMT – Switzerland – May PMI Report:
- PMI procure.ch: forecast 48.1; previous 45.8
07:45 GMT – France – May PMI Report:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 49.5; previous 48.7
07:55 GMT – Germany – May PMI Report:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 48.8; previous 48.4
08:00 GMT – Poland – GDP Data (Q2):
- QoQ: forecast 0.7%; previous 1.3%
- YoY: forecast 3.2%; previous 3.2%
08:00 GMT – Eurozone – May PMI Report:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 48.4; previous 49.0
13:45 GMT – USA – May PMI Report:
- Manufacturing PMI: forecast 52.3; previous 50.2
14:00 GMT – UK – Speech by BoE MPC Member Mann
14:00 GMT – USA – ISM Data (May):
- ISM Manufacturing Index: forecast 49.3; previous 48.7
- ISM New Orders Index: previous 47.2
- ISM Employment Index: previous 46.5
14:00 GMT – USA – April Inflation Data:
- Construction Spending: forecast 0.4% MoM; previous -0.5% MoM
14:00 GMT – USA – ISM Data (May):
- ISM Manufacturing Index (alternative release): forecast 70.2; previous 69.8
16:00 GMT – Germany – Speech by Bundesbank’s Balz
16:30 GMT – Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde17:00 GMT – USA – GDP Data:
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): forecast 3.8%; previous 3.8%
17:00 GMT – USA – Speech by Fed Chair Powell
22:30 GMT – UK – Speech by BoE MPC Member Mann (repeat appearance)
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