S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
Despite sub-consensus German CPI, euro area figures were in line with the 2.0% consensus. As discussed yesterday, even a small undershooting wouldn’t have triggered material dovish repricing given the ECB’s hawkish communication, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
EUR/USD seen neutral with 1.170 in focus
“The focus for the euro at this stage is on geopolitics, looking at both the West (Greenland) and the East (Ukraine). On the former, the US and Denmark will meet next week to discuss Greenland, where the White House is reportedly considering business deals to gain a footprint on the island. The Trump administration has nevertheless kept the threat of military intervention as a possibility, although there is little priced in at this stage.”
“EUR/DKK has been trading on the strong side but is only some 0.15% above the 7.460 peg level. The Danish central bank allows +/- 2.25%, even if deviations are generally well below 0.5%. It is possible that the central bank is buying DKK: in 2019-20, FX interventions were deployed around these spot levels. A decisive break above 7.4740 – a level well defended in 2019-20 – would be a slightly more worrying signal.”
“On Ukraine, the UK and France have agreed to send troops if a peace deal is agreed. So far, the euro has remained largely unreactive to the small progress being made. We retain a short-term neutral view on EUR/USD, with 1.170 as a target. Strong German factory orders this morning don’t seem to be moving the needle in the spot.”
