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ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that Taiwan’s April trade data showed slower export and import growth versus expectations, with the trade surplus easing to USD14.35bn. Semiconductor and machinery exports remained strong, while higher Oil prices started to lift import values. ING still expects robust trade momentum and sees upside risks to its 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast of 8.2% YoY.
Exports miss forecasts but momentum holds
“Taiwan’s export growth slowed to 39.0% YoY in April, down from 61.8% YoY in March, and falling well short of market forecasts on the month.”
“One area where Taiwan is continuing to see positive signs is the export price index, which continued to accelerate for an eighth consecutive month to 18.0% YoY, reaching a multi-year high. As long as the demand for top-end AI chips remains robust, Taiwan’s trade prospects remain bright.”
“Higher energy prices are likely to feed through to boost Taiwan’s imports.”
“While the April data was the first miss for Taiwan’s trade data in a while, both exports and imports are still growing strongly, and export orders data suggests that this momentum should continue for some time at least. Even so, export growth may moderate later this year, particularly as more challenging base effects come into play, especially in the fourth quarter.”
“Still, Taiwan is well positioned to see another strong year of economic growth this year, and after a strong start to the year, we think risks are still balanced to the upside for our current 2026 GDP forecast of 8.2% YoY.”
