UK 10-Year Gilt Yield Moves Down

The UK 10-year gilt yield eased to around 5.0%, following lower US Treasury yields as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Although energy markets started the week relatively calmly, the risk of a prolonged conflict remains a concern for inflation. Despite retreating from its July peak, Brent crude is still around 45% higher since the start of the year. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged in July, with Governor Andrew Bailey saying the disinflation process remained on track despite external risks. Markets are now focused on the UK inflation report due this week, with expectations pointing to a rise in headline inflation to a four-month high, while the core rate is expected to moderate. In the US, markets continue to scale back expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike. Meanwhile, tensions remain elevated after Iran called on Washington to accept defeat, while President Donald Trump warned of persistently high fuel prices.


