The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.32% on Monday, little changed but maintaining last week’s gains as stalled US–Iran peace negotiations kept markets cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. President Donald Trump cancelled plans to send senior envoys to Pakistan for a second round of talks with Iran, while Tehran reiterated it would not engage in negotiations under threats or blockade conditions. Oil prices rallied again as the Middle East conflict entered its ninth week and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, fueling inflation concerns and increasing the likelihood that central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer or even tighten further. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, a meeting that could mark Jerome Powell’s final one as chair before Kevin Warsh is anticipated to take over in May.
