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Nickel futures traded above $18,750, hovering close to a more than three-month high of $18,775, with the market consolidating after a strong rally. The uptrend is underpinned by expectations of a tighter global balance, after the International Nickel Study Group projected a shift into a small market deficit in 2026, reversing this year’s surplus. The outlook reflects stronger demand growth relative to supply, supporting a firmer medium-term price tone. On the supply side, Indonesia continues to shape cost dynamics after revising its nickel ore benchmark pricing framework, lifting upstream cost floors by broadening input factors and raising base pricing assumptions. This has reinforced higher production costs and a firmer global cost curve. At the same time, pressures in Indonesia’s HPAL sector persist, with elevated input costs limiting processing flexibility for nickel intermediates used in battery materials, keeping supply tight in the near term.
