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Aluminum futures in the UK rebounded to $3,520 per tonne from the three-week low of $3,480 on April 29th amid expectations of prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East. US President Trump signaled that the naval blockade would remain for longer for Iranian commercial vessels leaving the Straight of Hormuz.
The move was followed with threats from Iran on tankers and dry bulk cargos in the region that have prevented aluminum shipments from major producers in the Persian Gulf. Pre-war supply from Gulf countries were responsible for 9% of global supply and nearly 25% of non-Chinese supply. On top of that, direct attacks on the largest refiners in the region delayed the eventual return of supply from the area, with EGA’s flagship plant expected to return to capacity in one year, and Bahrain’s ALBA operations being suspended. The resulting surge in natural gas costs also lifted refining costs. Meanwhile, strong manufacturing activity data from China supported the demand backdrop.
