Australia’s government bond yield rose to 4.67% on Thursday, its highest level since November 2023, as strong economic data bolstered expectations of a rate hike next year. Household spending jumped 1.3% month-on-month in October, the biggest gain since January 2024, following a 0.3% rise in September. At the same time, the trade surplus widened more than anticipated in October, as export growth outpaced imports. Markets have raised their bets on the Reserve Bank lifting rates, with the probability of a hike as early as May now priced at 50%. The central bank, which meets next week, is also widely expected to keep the cash rate at 3.6% after three cuts this year. Data on Wednesday showed that economic growth fell short of forecasts but still indicated sufficient underlying strength to challenge the case for further easing. RBA Governor Michele Bullock has also warned that the economy is approaching its speed limit, and policymakers remain alert to upside risks to inflation.

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