The Australian dollar weakened to around $0.652 on Monday, reversing gains from the previous week as a stronger greenback weighed on the currency. The US dollar appreciated after Fed officials expressed doubts about the need for a December rate cut, with some dismissing the possibility outright. Markets now assign roughly a 46% chance of a 25 bps reduction next month, significantly lower than the approximately 88% priced in earlier. In Australia, investors also pared back expectations for monetary easing. They have largely discarded the likelihood of an RBA rate cut this year, as recent economic indicators have provided insufficient justification for loosening. Notably, stronger-than-expected employment data recalibrated bets, with swaps now pricing in only a 43.9% probability of a rate cut in May 2026, down sharply from nearly 70% previously. Investors turn their attention to tomorrow’s RBA meeting minutes, seeking more clues on future policy moves.

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