China’s economy expanded 4.8% yoy in Q3 2025, easing from 5.2% in Q2 and marking the slowest pace since Q3 2024. While in line with market consensus, GDP growth in the mainland has steadily lost momentum after a strong start to the year, pressured by trade tensions with the U.S., a prolonged property slump, and weak consumer demand. September activity data showed Chinese retail sales rose the least in a year, despite ongoing consumer subsidy programs. The jobless rate edged lower but stayed near August’s six-month high. Meanwhile, industrial output grew at the fastest pace in three months, ahead of the Golden Week. On the trade front, both exports and imports exceeded expectations as firms pushed into new markets while domestic demand was supported by holiday spending. The statistics bureau cautioned that China’s economy faces significant risks and external headwinds, with the foundation for recovery remaining fragile. For the first nine months of the year, the economy grew 5.2%.

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