Coal strengthened above $140 per ton and was on track to gain more than 20% in March, marking its biggest monthly advance since the peak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in May 2022. The surge comes as the prolonged Middle East conflict kept a risk premium in energy markets, prompting power generators across Asia and Europe to increase reliance on coal.

Japan has joined other nations in signaling plans to ramp up coal-fired power generation to offset the energy shock from the Iran war. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is reportedly willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even without the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially giving Tehran greater control over the strategic waterway. Iran is also said to be preparing to disrupt Red Sea shipping, raising the risk that two key global trade and energy corridors could be effectively cut off.

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