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ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson highlight that China’s latest trade data show continued weakness in copper imports, with unwrought volumes down 11.5% year-on-year and concentrate flows also softer. However, speculative sentiment in COMEX copper turned more supportive, with net long positions rising to their highest level since February 2021 on tight physical markets and low inventories.
Weak imports yet stronger Copper positioning
“In industrial metals, China’s latest trade data showed continued weakness in copper imports. Unwrought copper imports fell 11.5% year-on-year to 424.6kt in July, leaving year-to-date volumes down 6.2%.”
“Copper concentrate imports also weakened, reflecting growing pressure from tighter mine supply. In contrast, iron ore imports rose 3.3% year-on-year to 108.1mt, although lower steel margins and maintenance activity continued to weigh on demand.”
“On the export side, shipments of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products increased 18.6% year-on-year to 640kt as producers capitalised on supply disruptions and trade dislocations linked to the Middle East conflict. Steel exports rose 2.9% year-on-year to 10.1mt.”
“Speculative sentiment remained supportive across metals. Money managers raised net long positions in COMEX copper by 11,306 lots to 77,796 lots, the highest since February 2021, as tight physical markets and low inventories supported prices.”
