Economic Calendar: FOMC Minutes Out, PMIs and Japanese Inflation Ahead

Yesterday was marked by the publication of the FOMC Minutes – a transcript from the last meeting of the committee. What did these show? And what does market await now?

🌏 Key macroeconomic publications

Wednesday

USA Yesterday, the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting were released, providing a transcript of the debate. What did we learn?

• “Many” policy makers concluded that further tightening of monetary policy would highly likely be necessary if inflation does not subside.
• The Committee remained deeply divided regarding the assessment of these inflationary prospects. Although the “majority” of participants anticipate a gradual decline in inflation later this year, “many” fear it could remain persistently elevated.
• It was noted that core inflationary indicators remain worryingly high, and inflation expectations have reached levels exceeding those seen before the outbreak of the war in Iran.
• Deciders who advocated for maintaining interest rates at an unchanged level in July argued primarily that a pause could allow for a more accurate diagnosis of the situation. Since that meeting, weaker labour market data and slightly softer inflation readings have been published, significantly strengthening their position.
• Those voting for a rate hike assessed that such a move would most likely limit the need for deeper and potentially more costly tightening (from an economic perspective) at a later stage.

Thursday

Poland

Wage growth accelerated in July to 6.8% (against a consensus of 6.2%). Producer price inflation (2.8%) and industrial production (5.1%) also exceeded expectations. The data suggest a higher probability than previously thought of second-round effects occurring, namely the translation of supply-shock-driven inflation into demand-driven factors. It is currently difficult to consider a scenario where the interest rate cut proposal announced by Governor Glapiński at the last MPC meeting finds broader support within the Council. However, immediate interest rate hikes also remain unlikely.

Japan

The current account recorded an unexpectedly high deficit (exceeding 69 billion JPY in July), primarily due to higher oil prices and a large outflow of dividends abroad.

Australia

The consumer inflation expectations survey, published by the Melbourne Institute, showed a reversal of the positive trend seen in previous months. In August, consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.9% on an annual basis. Labour market data, meanwhile, proved to be a major negative surprise for the markets. The unemployment rate rose to 4.5% (consensus 4.4%), while the change in employment was -15.8 thousand jobs (consensus +11.7 thousand). This represents a clear slowdown compared to a very strong June, when over 80 thousand jobs were added.

📆 Economic calendar

Thursday

• USA: Weekly Jobless ClaimsTime: 1:30 PMPrevious: 209kConsensus: 210k
• Time: 1:30 PM
• Previous: 209k
• Consensus: 210k

Friday

• New Zealand: Trade Balance (July)Time: 11:45 PMPrevious: 23mConsensus: -175m
• Time: 11:45 PM
• Previous: 23m
• Consensus: -175m
• Japan: CPI Inflation (July)Time: 12:30 AMPrevious: 1.6%Consensus: 1.8%
• Time: 12:30 AM
• Previous: 1.6%
• Consensus: 1.8%
• Japan: PMI Index (August)Time: 1:30 AMPoprzedni: 52,7
• Time: 1:30 AM
• Poprzedni: 52,7
• UK: Retail Sales (July)Time: 7:00 AMPoprzedni: 4,2%
• Time: 7:00 AM
• Poprzedni: 4,2%
• France: PMI Index (August)Time: 8:15 AMPoprzedni: 49,4
• Time: 8:15 AM
• Poprzedni: 49,4
• Germany: PMI Index (August)Time: 8:30 AMPoprzedni: 51,3
• Time: 8:30 AM
• Poprzedni: 51,3
• Eurozone: PMI Index (August)Time: 9:00 AMPoprzedni: 52
• Time: 9:00 AM
• Poprzedni: 52

🗂️ Corporate earnings releases

• Walmart Inc ($WMT.US) – before market open (BMO)
• Kandi Technologies Group ($KNDI.US) – before market open (BMO)
• Canaan Inc – ADR ($CAN.US) – before market open (BMO)
• Bioline Rx Ltd – ADR ($BLRX.US) – before market open (BMO)
• Deere & Co. ($DE.US) – before market open (BMO)
• Newegg Commerce Inc ($NEGG.US) – before market open (BMO)

3 markets to watch

• OIL: Axios, citing US officials, reported that the US military has been quietly maintaining a secure shipping corridor through the southern channel of the Strait of Hormuz, just off the coast of Oman, for several weeks. However, oil prices remain close to local highs.
• EURUSD: Yesterday’s movement was one of the strongest this year. The dollar lost 0.9% against the euro, primarily influenced by communications from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Tomorrow brings another test in the form of August PMI indicators.
• USDJPY: The pair has moved significantly away from the critical barrier at 160. Tomorrow’s release of inflation data may indicate the further direction.

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