EUR is likely to edge lower, but any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.1650. In the longer run, bias remains tilted to the downside, but EUR must close below 1.1680 before a move toward 1.1650 can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

EUR is likely to edge lower

24-HOUR VIEW: “Following EUR’s price action on Monday, we indicated yesterday that EUR ‘appears to have entered a range-trading phase, and it is likely to trade between 1.1695 and 1.1750’. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1742, dropped back down to 1.1683 before closing on a soft note at 1.1687 (-0.28%). The slight increase in downward momentum suggests EUR is likely to edge lower today, but any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 1.1650. Note that there is another support level at 1.1680. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1715 and 1.1730.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days ago (05 Jan, spot at 1.1715), we highlighted that ‘the bias is tilted to the downside toward 1.1680’. After EUR dropped to 1.1658 and rebounded strongly, we indicated yesterday (06 Jan, spot at 1.1715) that ‘while the bias remains tilted to the downside, EUR must close below 1.1680 before a move toward 1.1650 can be expected’. We will continue to hold the same view as long as 1.1755 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.1765 yesterday) is not breached.”

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