US heating oil climbed over 3% to above $4.00 per gallon in late April, extending last week’s 14% gain and hovering near a two-week high, as prolonged Middle East supply disruptions tightened availability for refiners. Although a ceasefire has largely been held since early April, efforts to revive peace talks in the Iran conflict have collapsed.

A US-led blockade remains in place, limiting Iranian maritime activity, while Iran has responded with its own restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, with reports last week also pointing to gunfire involving commercial vessels. Consequently, vessel movements through the route have dropped to almost zero, disrupting a vital corridor that typically carries around 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined products. Markets note that a sustained closure of the major passageway would force oil demand lower to align with supply already down by at least 10%.

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