Japan’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 2.66% on Tuesday, hovering near two-week lows as investors continued to evaluate the outlook for Bank of Japan monetary policy while keeping a close watch on developments in the Middle East. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 78% probability that the BOJ will raise interest rates again later this month amid a renewed surge in inflation linked to the Iran conflict. The yen’s weakness has reinforced expectations for tighter policy, as rising energy costs have weighed on the currency and increased concerns about the impact on household spending. Investors are now awaiting remarks from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda later this week for additional clues on the central bank’s policy direction. Meanwhile, Tehran reportedly suspended talks with Washington in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, although President Donald Trump said negotiations remain ongoing.

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