Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish projects Mexico’s 2026 growth to remain below potential, constrained by weak manufacturing, investment and USMCA‑related uncertainty. Higher Oil prices are expected to pass through, lifting inflation risks and expectations. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is described as dovish for now but likely to postpone further easing into 2027, while rising social spending limits fiscal consolidation despite achievable budget goals.

Below‑potential growth and cautious Banxico

“Growth: 2026 growth stays below potential amid weak manufacturing, investment, and USMCA-linked uncertainties.”

“Inflation: Oil passthrough likely ahead, pushing inflation risks and expectations higher.”

“Monetary Policy: Banxico remains dovish for now but will likely push further easing into 2027.”

“Fiscal: Budget goals achievable but rising social spending limits consolidation.”

“Risks: Oil, US slowdown, and USMCA uncertainty threaten both inflation and growth paths.”

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