The New Zealand dollar strengthened to around $0.574 on Monday, recouping losses from the last session, after data showed that inflationary pressures were at its highest in over a year. The Q3 annual inflation rate rose to 3%, reaching the top of the central bank’s 1–3% target band. Still, the increase came in as expected, with analysts noting that the RBNZ had for several months signaled the possibility of Q3 CPI exceeding its target range, making the latest reading a welcome relief for the central bank. The in-line data also showed that underlying measures remained well contained, reinforcing expectations that policymakers will proceed with a rate cut in November. Swaps fully priced in a 25 bps reduction and a slight chance of a larger 50 bps move. Meanwhile, sentiment was further supported by easing US–China trade tensions, which helped reduce risks for New Zealand’s export-reliant economy, though gains were capped by subdued data from key trading partner China.

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