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ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices have pulled back, with ICE Brent dropping below $90/bbl even as US–Iran tensions stay high. They highlight recovering flows from the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz and pipelines, and stress that US SPR constraints and Russia’s extended diesel export ban keep middle distillate markets tight, with European supply risks via the Red Sea.
Brent pressured as distillates stay tight
“Oil prices came under pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 1.9% lower on the day, taking it back below $90/bbl. This weakness comes despite little improvement in tensions between the US and Iran.”
“There are signs of an increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Ship tracking data shows that tanker crossings have increased slightly.”
“However, the US energy secretary has said that around 13m b/d of oil is coming out of the Persian Gulf, with roughly half coming through the strait. The other half is using pipelines to bypass the strait.”
“The US also appears to have ruled out further releases from its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), once the ongoing release of 172m barrels is complete. The SPR currently stands at a little under 308m barrels, and there’s growing concern over how much further this reserve could be tapped, given operational minimum levels.”
“Middle distillate markets are set to remain tight, with Russia extending its ban on diesel exports until 1 September. Russia is the second-largest exporter of diesel, shipping more than 700k b/d in 2025.”
