Today Markets Analysis

Soybean futures finished mixed on Thursday after correcting from earlier intraday strength, as exceptionally strong U.S. export sales and renewed Chinese buying competed with concerns over heavy rainfall across key producing states.

November 2026 soybeans closed at approximately $13.19¾ per bushel, down ¾ cent, while January 2027 futures slipped ¼ cent to $13.37. March 2027 soybeans bucked the trend, gaining ½ cent to $13.45¾.

The relatively narrow price movements mask a much more important fundamental development: U.S. soybean export demand is running substantially ahead of last year’s pace, with China accounting for more than 875,000 tonnes of new purchases in the latest reporting week.

At the same time, weather could slow the arrival of the new crop.

NOAA’s seven-day forecast continues to indicate heavy rainfall across parts of South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas, extending eastward through Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

That could restrict early harvest progress and potentially delay the movement of freshly harvested beans into the market.

The result is a soybean market being pulled between strong export demand and potential harvest delays on one side, and seasonal supply pressure, weak domestic meal demand and continued uncertainty over the size of the U.S. crop on the other.

Soybean Market Snapshot

Why Soybeans Are Holding Near $13.20

The soybean market remains relatively resilient despite the approach of the U.S. harvest season.

Normally, the arrival of a large new crop creates seasonal pressure as farmers begin harvesting and commercial supplies increase.

This year, however, export demand is providing an important counterweight.

USDA data showed U.S. exporters sold approximately 1.7 million tonnes of soybeans for the 2026/27 marketing year during the week of September 10.

That was nearly twice the volume recorded during the comparable week last year.

Even more significant was the composition of those sales.

China purchased approximately 875,300 tonnes, making it the largest identifiable buyer during the reporting period.

Mexico purchased another 138,600 tonnes, while approximately 218,900 tonnes were sold to unknown destinations.

The scale of Chinese buying is particularly important because China is the world’s largest soybean importer and a critical source of demand for U.S. producers.

China Returns as a Major Demand Driver

China’s participation in the latest export-sales report is one of the most important bullish developments for soybeans.

The country accounted for more than half of the reported 2026/27 soybean purchases during the week.

That provides evidence of substantial forward demand for U.S. soybeans heading into the new marketing year.

The market will now be watching whether this represents the beginning of a sustained acceleration in Chinese purchases or simply a period of concentrated buying.

For soybean prices, the distinction is important.

If Chinese buying continues at elevated levels, export demand could absorb a meaningful portion of the incoming U.S. crop.

If purchases slow again, the market could become increasingly focused on domestic production and the size of stocks available after harvest.

Weather Could Slow the U.S. Harvest

Weather is providing another source of support.

NOAA’s seven-day forecast calls for heavy rainfall across a large section of the U.S. Midwest and Plains.

The affected areas include:

• South Dakota
• Nebraska
• Kansas
• Iowa
• Minnesota
• Wisconsin
• Illinois
• Indiana
• Ohio

The timing is significant.

The U.S. soybean harvest is approaching, meaning persistent rainfall could restrict fieldwork and delay early harvesting.

A slower harvest can temporarily limit the flow of physical soybeans into the commercial market.

However, rainfall does not automatically translate into crop damage.

The ultimate impact will depend on rainfall intensity, duration, field conditions and how quickly farmers can return to harvesting once conditions improve.

Soymeal Provides Additional Support

Soymeal futures moved sharply higher, gaining approximately $3.60.

That is important because soybean processors generate both soybean meal and soybean oil when crushing beans.

Stronger meal prices can improve crush economics and provide additional incentive for processors to maintain soybean demand.

However, the latest export data showed soybean meal bookings of approximately 210,507 tonnes, toward the lower end of the reported estimate range.

Of that total, approximately 23,673 tonnes were for the current marketing year and 186,834 tonnes were for 2026/27.

The contrast between strong whole-bean exports and more moderate meal bookings is worth monitoring.

Soybean Oil Moves in the Opposite Direction

Soybean oil was weaker, with futures declining between approximately 13 and 52 points.

Export bookings were also relatively limited.

Soybean oil sales totalled approximately 4,372 tonnes, including a net reduction of 163 tonnes for 2025/26 and sales of 4,535 tonnes for 2026/27.

This creates a mixed picture across the soybean complex.

Soybeans → strong export demand

Soymeal → higher prices

Soybean oil → weaker

That divergence suggests traders are assessing the different supply-and-demand fundamentals affecting each component of the crush market.

Bullish Sentiment

1. Chinese Demand Is Strong

China purchased approximately 875,300 tonnes of U.S. soybeans during the latest reporting week.

That represents a substantial source of demand heading into the 2026/27 marketing year.

2. Export Sales Nearly Doubled Year on Year

Total new soybean sales of approximately 1.7 MMT were nearly twice the volume recorded during the same week last year.

That provides a significant demand signal for the U.S. market.

3. Heavy Rain Could Delay Harvest

Large areas of the Midwest and Plains are facing significant rainfall over the next seven days.

If field conditions deteriorate, early harvest progress could be delayed.

4. Soymeal Prices Are Rising

Soymeal futures gained approximately $3.60, potentially supporting soybean crush economics and underlying demand for beans.

5. Strong Forward Demand Could Absorb New-Crop Supply

If export sales remain elevated through the early stages of harvest, strong international demand could reduce some of the seasonal pressure normally associated with the arrival of the U.S. crop.

Bearish Sentiment

1. Harvest Pressure Is Approaching

The U.S. soybean harvest is approaching its seasonal acceleration.

As more beans reach elevators and processors, physical availability is likely to increase.

2. Weather Does Not Necessarily Mean Crop Damage

Although heavy rain could delay fieldwork, rainfall itself does not automatically reduce yields.

If conditions improve quickly, farmers could potentially make rapid harvest progress.

3. Soybean Oil Is Weak

Soybean oil prices declined despite strength in soybeans and soymeal.

That indicates that demand across the soybean complex remains uneven.

4. Soymeal Export Bookings Are Moderate

Soymeal sales of approximately 210,507 tonnes were toward the lower end of the reported estimate range.

That suggests international demand for processed soybean products is not uniformly strong.

5. Seasonal Supply Remains a Major Risk

The incoming U.S. crop could still generate substantial supply pressure.

Even strong export demand may not be sufficient to prevent prices from weakening if production exceeds expectations and harvest-related selling accelerates.

China Is the Key Demand Variable

For soybean traders, China remains one of the most important variables.

The latest export-sales data provide a clear bullish signal, but the market needs to determine whether the buying represents a sustained shift in demand.

The next several weeks will therefore be critical.

If Chinese purchases continue at elevated levels, the market could begin reassessing expectations for U.S. ending stocks.

If the buying slows, attention is likely to return to the size and timing of the U.S. harvest.

That creates an important tension:

Strong Chinese demand → supportive

versus

Large U.S. harvest → potentially bearish

Harvest Versus Exports

The soybean market is entering a period where two major fundamental forces will collide.

Supply Side

• U.S. harvest approaching
• Potentially large new crop
• Increasing physical availability
• Seasonal farmer selling

Demand Side

• Strong 2026/27 export sales
• Significant Chinese purchases
• Mexican demand
• Stronger soybean meal prices

The balance between these forces will determine whether soybean prices can maintain their current levels.

What Traders Are Watching Next

The next important soybean catalysts include:

• Chinese soybean purchases
• Weekly USDA export sales
• U.S. harvest progress
• NOAA weather forecasts
• Midwest rainfall
• U.S. crop yields
• Soybean export inspections
• Soymeal demand
• Soybean oil prices
• Crush margins
• U.S. dollar direction
• China’s livestock-feed demand
• South American planting expectations
• U.S. ending-stock estimates

The most important near-term question is whether exceptionally strong export demand can keep pace with the arrival of the U.S. harvest.

Currency Hedger View

Soybeans demonstrate the close relationship between agricultural commodities, international trade and foreign exchange.

The United States sells soybeans into a highly competitive global market, meaning currency movements can influence the relative cost of U.S. agricultural exports for overseas buyers.

A stronger U.S. dollar can make dollar-denominated soybeans more expensive for international purchasers, potentially affecting export competitiveness.

For exporters, importers, agricultural processors and international commodity businesses, this creates an additional layer of currency exposure alongside the underlying commodity-price risk.

The combination can be significant:

Soybean price risk + USD currency risk = increased exposure to international purchasing costs and margins.

Octalas Group Ltd operates Currency Hedger as its foreign-exchange and currency-risk division, providing commentary on FX exposure, international payments and hedging considerations.

Today Markets View

Soybeans are entering a critical period as exceptionally strong export demand collides with the approaching U.S. harvest.

The latest USDA figures are clearly supportive, particularly with China purchasing approximately 875,300 tonnes and total 2026/27 soybean sales reaching around 1.7 MMT for the week.

At the same time, heavy rainfall across major producing states could slow the initial harvest process and temporarily restrict the arrival of new-crop supplies.

But the bullish case still faces an important test.

The U.S. harvest is approaching, soybean oil remains weak and soybean meal bookings are relatively moderate.

The key question is therefore whether China’s renewed buying represents the beginning of sustained export demand or a concentrated burst of purchases ahead of the new crop.

“Soybeans are entering a critical transition period. Strong Chinese buying and potentially slower harvest progress are providing support, but the arrival of the U.S. crop will test whether export demand can absorb new supply quickly enough. The next phase of the market will depend heavily on the interaction between Chinese purchases, U.S. harvest progress and the size of the incoming crop.”

— Louis Roche, Analyst, Today Markets

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