The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 95.8 points in March 2026, the lowest since April 2025 from 98.8 in February and below forecast of 98.6. The reading is now below its 52-year average of 98, as “the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. Also, the Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, well above its historical average of 68. The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 11 points to a net -25% and the net % of owners expecting better business conditions fell 7 points to a net 11%, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since October 2024. On the other hand, “the 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners”, Bill Dunkelberg added.

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