In its FX Weekly Dispatch, TD Securities maintains a bearish outlook on the USD, driven by a backdrop of solid global growth and declining safe-haven appeal. The report suggests that the risk-reward favors USD downside in the coming quarters, with potential for better selling levels against currencies like EUR, GBP, AUD, and SEK. The analysis indicates that the USD’s safe haven status is likely to diminish further in 2026.

Long-term USD forecast

“Structurally, we remain comfortable with a bearish USD view. Risk-reward favors USD downside over coming quarters from strained haven status, continued ‘Hedge America’ trade, and US resilience falling short of exceptionalism in a backdrop of solid global growth, lower rates and fiscal buffers.”

“We continue to forecast a structural decline in the USD in 2026, driven by US convergence to global growth and rates and waning safe-haven appeal.”

Octalas AI

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