Where Are Cocoa Prices Heading?

Before 2024, the all-time peak in ICE cocoa futures was $5,104 per ton in 1977. Last year, they blew through that level like a hot knife through butter, reaching nearly $13,000 per ton. In 2025, the continuous contract traded between $7,613 and $11,882 per ton. At over the $10,800 level in May, cocoa futures are above the midpoint of this year’s trading range. 

In my April 11 Barchart article on the soft commodities sector, I wrote:

The bottom line is that the high-flying softs at elevated prices, including cocoa, coffee, and FCOJ, could experience additional downside pressure over the coming months and years.

Nearby ICE cocoa futures were at the $8,408 per ton level on April 11 and have moved higher to over $10,800 in late May. 

Cocoa’s trend remains bullish

While cocoa prices retreated from the December 2024 record high, the long-term path of least resistance remains higher.

The quarterly chart highlights the 2024 parabolic rally that took the cocoa price to well over double the pre-2024 $5,104 per ton 1977 high. After reaching $12,931 per ton in December 2024, cocoa futures corrected lower but were close to the $10,000 level in late May. Cocoa remains in a bullish trend.  

Weather and crop issues in West Africa will determine the price path

The West African weather and climate are ideal for cocoa production, making the Ivory Coast and Ghana the world’s leading cocoa-producing countries. Below-average rainfall in the Ivory Coast has increased supply concerns. Moreover, cocoa processors have rejected truckloads of beans for quality issues, with 5-6% of the mid-crop deemed substandard, significantly higher than the typical 1% rejection rate during the main crop period. 

Tariffs and the cocoa market

U.S. tariffs have impacted many commodity prices, and cocoa is no exception. An April 11 story from ABC News highlighted the U.S. administration’s tariffs that “grind on coffee and chocolate business owners.” Coffee baristas and chocolate confectioners face pricing pressures that threaten their businesses. The story included comments from a cocoa bean importer:

New Hampshire chocolatier Richard Tango-Lowy, owner of Dancing Lion Chocolate in Manchester, said he imports some of his cocoa beans from Vietnam, which Trump says faces a 46% reciprocal tariff if it doesn’t bargain with the White House. Tango-Lowy said he also gets beans from Bolivia, which is subject to the baseline 10% tariff.

“We have about 600 kilos of beans on the way from Bolivia. We have no idea what they will cost right now,” Tango-Lowy told ABC affiliate station WMUR in Manchester.

Tango-Lowy said much of his packaging comes from Hong Kong, which is subject to China’s tariffs.

“We work domestically where we can, but a lot of what we do is not available domestically,” Tango-Lowy said. “It just doesn’t exist.”

Tango-Lowy is bracing to have to absorb the tariffs, saying, “We’re going to need the beans at some point.”

Tariffs did not cause cocoa’s rally, but they could keep prices higher for longer. 

Levels to watch on the nearby cocoa futures

Cocoa’s extreme volatility in 2024 created significant technical support and resistance levels. 

The monthly continuous cocoa futures chart illustrates critical technical resistance at the December 2024 $12,931 per ton high. Support is at the April 2025 $7,613 low. At $10,904 per ton on May 19, cocoa futures are above the midpoint of the December 2024-April 2025 trading range. 

Another critical level on the downside is the pre-2024 $5,104 high from 1977, as the previous resistance has become long-term technical support. 

Futures are the only way to position in the volatile cocoa market

At nearly $10,000 per ton with supply concerns, cocoa remains in a bullish trend in May 2025. The NIB ETN product ceased trading in June 2023, leaving futures the only choice for market participants seeking risk positions in the cocoa market. Each ICE cocoa futures contract contains ten metric tons of cocoa beans. At $10,904 per ton, the contract value is $109,040. The exchange’s current original margin requirement of $12,452 per contract means a market participant can control $109,040 of cocoa futures for an 11.42% down payment. The exchange requires a variation or maintenance margin payment if the equity on a risk position (long or short) drops below $11,320 per contract. 

Expect cocoa volatility to continue as supply concerns underpin prices, and the current level remains almost double the pre-2024 record high.

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