Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held its recent gains above 4.8%, attempting to rebound from a recent fifteen-week low, as uncertainty in US-Iran peace talks kept inflation risks elevated, while markets await key domestic economic releases this week. Focus will likely be on the release of CPI and employment data, which will be pivotal for the Reserve Bank’s next policy move. Headline inflation is expected to pick up to 4.4% in May from 4.2% from a month earlier, while core measure likely edged up to 3.5% from 3.4%, both well above the central bank’s target. For the jobs data, forecasts are centered on a rise of 25,000 net jobs for May, while the unemployment rate likely fell to 4.4% after hitting a 4 1/2 -year high of 4.5% last month. Meanwhile, the US and Iran agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, though concerns persisted after both sides recently exchanged threats over the conflict in Lebanon, with Tehran claiming it had once again closed the Strait of Hormuz.

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