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OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that Swiss Franc (CHF) safe-haven demand is being constrained by perceived Swiss National Bank (SNB) intervention risk. They see the recent EUR/CHF move below 0.92 as partly reflecting reduced intervention expectations as geopolitical risks ease. However, they believe it is too early to assume the SNB will accept sustained CHF strength to fight imported inflation.
SNB stance tempers Franc strength
“CHF’s traditional safe-haven bid has been blunted by the SNB’s shift toward more active intervention stance against currency strength since the outbreak of the US–Iran conflict.”
“The SNB likely stepped in to offset safe-haven inflows, acting reactively to cap CHF gains rather than proactively weaken the currency.”
“The overnight grind of EUR/CHF below 0.92 may reflect market pricing of reduced SNB intervention as acute geopolitical risks fade.”
“However, we think it is premature to expect the SNB to tolerate sustained CHF strength as a tool to counter imported inflation.”
