The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting in June 2026, as policymakers navigate persistent inflation and uncertainty over the pace at which price pressures will ease. This meeting will be the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose appointment was initially viewed as leaning toward interest rate cuts and policy easing; however, market expectations have since shifted toward a more hawkish stance. Although the US and Iran have agreed to a provisional peace deal, oil prices remain above pre-war levels, while recent labour market data has pointed to continued strength in employment. Investors will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections, including the “dot plot,” for signals on the future path of interest rates. However, many analysts expect that new Chair Warsh will not participate in it. Back in March, the Fed had previously projected one rate cut in 2026 and another one in 2027.

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