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MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights the Indonesian rupiah’s continued vulnerability as USD/IDR moved back above 18,000 amid renewed Middle East tensions and elevated US yields. Although attractive government bond and SRBI yields have supported foreign inflows into the bond market, persistent net foreign equity outflows leave the balance of risks tilted toward further rupiah weakness.
External pressures weigh on Rupiah
“We remain cautious on selective regional currencies, particularly the Indonesian rupiah.”
“IDR led regional losses yesterday, with USDIDR rising 0.5% to move back above the 18,000 level.”
“Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated US yields continue to exert external pressure on the rupiah.”
“While elevated government bond and SRBI yields have helped attract foreign inflows into the bond market, Indonesia continues to face persistent net foreign equity outflows.”
“Overall, the balance of risks remains tilted toward further rupiah weakness.”
