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- NZD/USD hovers around the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.5850.
- The 14-day Relative Strength Index has retreated toward the low 40s, signaling fading downside momentum.
- The immediate barrier lies at the 50-day EMA of 0.5864.
NZD/USD gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5840 during the Asian hours on Wednesday.
During the September Monetary Policy Review, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman stated that the official cash rate (OCR) track remains closely aligned with the May projections. Breman noted that moving the OCR toward a neutral stance remains accommodative, allowing the central bank to curb inflation while supporting the broader economy. Breman added that policymakers may need additional time to evaluate the full impact of their current monetary stance. Earlier on, Breman and her colleagues hiked the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, as widely expected.
Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the NZD/USD pair remains within an ascending channel pattern, indicating a bullish bias is still active. However, NZD/USD maintains a bearish near-term tone as it sits below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the nine-period EMA. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated toward the low-40s, hinting that downside momentum is building while rallies are likely to face selling pressure against this overhead EMA cluster.
The NZD/USD pair is hovering around the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.5850. A sustained break below the channel would confirm the confirm the bearish reversal and put downward pressure on the pair to explore the region around a nearly 17-month low of the 14-month low of 0.5580, which was recorded in November 2025. Further support lies at 0.5485, the lowest since March 2020.
On the upside, the NZD/USD pair may rebound and test the immediate barrier at the 50-day EMA of 0.5864, followed by the nine-day EMA at 0.5907. A break above these moving averages would revive the bullish bias and support the pair to approach the six-month high of 0.5996.
