
The South African rand has traded around 16.5 per USD since April, amid a resilient US dollar and heightened volatility in key precious metals, particularly gold and PGMs. This has been largely attributed to the Middle East conflict, which has contributed to increased global uncertainty and reinforced safe-haven demand for the greenback. Meanwhile, progress in US–Iran negotiations triggered a sharp decline in oil prices, helping to ease inflationary pressures. While this improves South Africa’s inflation outlook, SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago has warned that further rate hikes remain possible. He said that the US–Iran deal still leaves considerable uncertainty, noting that oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels soon and that higher fertilizer costs could spill over into food prices during the harvest in the second half of the year. Attention now shifts to the upcoming release of Q2 inflation expectations to gauge the extent of inflationary pressures in the economy.

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