S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
ING keeps a mildly bearish profile for USD/CAD into year‑end, driven mainly by expected Dollar weakness once the Federal Reserve resumes cutting in 3Q. Canada’s domestic backdrop is less supportive, with the Bank of Canada worried about upcoming USMCA talks and jobs. They see scope for USD/CAD to revisit 1.36 if Oil stays above pre‑war levels and risk sentiment improves.
Loonie supported more by Fed than domestic story
“We are keeping a modestly downward-sloping profile for USD/CAD into year-end, primarily on the back of expected USD weakness once the Fed resumes cutting (we think in 3Q).”
“Higher oil prices help growth, but the Bank of Canada remains very worried about upcoming USMCA negotiations and the impact on jobs.”
“We don’t think they’ll hike despite markets pricing in c.30bp by year-end.”
“A scenario where oil lands above pre-war level but a de-escalation still allows global risk sentiment to improve can send USD/CAD back to 1.36 before USMCA risk rises.”
