USD: Inflation data and energy pressures – Rabobank

Rabobank strategists note that US stocks have risen even as the Hormuz crisis threatens higher energy costs. They point to upcoming United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business optimism index as key for gauging upstream inflation, pricing power and labour costs, suggesting the Dollar’s outlook will hinge on how energy and supply‑chain pressures filter into broader US inflation dynamics.
PPI and NFIB in focus for markets
“Today sees US PPI, with markets alert to signs that energy and supply‑chain pressures are lifting upstream inflation. We also have the US NFIB small business optimism index, which will be monitored for insight into pricing power and labour costs.”
“US stocks closed up and oil is currently down around 2%, or at least the screen price of Brent is, which doesn’t mean much in the physical trading space. There may be a little logic to that market optimism, driven by a majority who focus as much mental energy on ignoring bad news as a minority expend in trying to flag these kinds of major crises in advance.”
“However, back-channel diplomacy continues alongside blockade(s). Indeed, Vice President Vance claims there could yet be “a grand deal,” but “the ball is in Iran’s court” – and Iran reportedly said it would only agree to suspend uranium enrichment for five years after the US had requested 20-year halt.That means there *might* be movement on the nuclear front, which could unlock much else in the negotiations.”
S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
