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IPC Index — Mexico MarketWTI Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable near mid-97.00s; break below 38.2% Fibo. awaited
- WTI drifts lower for the second straight day amid the optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal.
- The overnight breakdown below the 200-hour SMA backs the case for a further depreciating move.
- Bearish traders now await a sustained break below the $38.2% Fibo. level before placing fresh bets.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some follow-through sellers for the second straight day and drops to a one-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday. The commodity currently trades near mid-$97.00s, down nearly 2.5% for the day, and seems vulnerable to extend the recent pullback from a nearly four-week high, touched last Thursday.
US President Donald Trump said that ‘Project Freedom’ – aimed at restoring commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – will be paused for a short period of time to see if an agreement with Iran can be finalised. Furthermore, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the US-Iran ceasefire holds for now and that the US was not seeking to re-escalate tensions with Tehran. This, in turn, fuels hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Furthermore, the failed attempt to sustain gains above $98 has tilted the short-term structure lower. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 37. Momentum indicators hint that downside pressure is still dominant despite some intraday stabilization.
The subsequent slide, however, stalls near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from the April monthly low. The said support is pegged near the $96.40 region and should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, would reaffirm the near-term negative bias and pave the way for further losses. Crude Oil prices might then accelerate the downfall towards the 50% retracement at $93.09 en route to deeper Fibonacci floors at $89.76 and $85.02 ahead of the cycle low region near $78.97.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-hour SMA at $98.63, while a stronger barrier aligns at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $100.55. Only a decisive recovery above these levels would ease the current bearish tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 1-hour chart
