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- WTI may fall as normalizing Strait of Hormuz traffic and projected OPEC+ output hikes renew global supply glut fears.
- OPEC+ approved an 188,000-barrel-per-day output hike led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, signaling confidence in regional stability.
- Iran has started talks with Japanese firms to resume crude oil sales under a temporary US sanctions waiver.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around $69.00 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday. However, Crude oil prices hover near four-month lows as stabilizing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and projected OPEC+ (The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), including Russia) production increases renewed fears of a global supply glut.
Although several tankers made unexplained detours on Saturday, shipping lanes through the critical chokepoint normalized by Sunday. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved a modest output hike of 188,000 barrels per day for next month, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, a move signaling confidence in regional stability.
While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have pushed physical exports closer to pre-war levels, the ongoing regional conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has occasionally blocked vital shipping lanes, leaving some of these promised production increases realized largely on paper.
According to Reuters, Iran has entered discussions with Japanese firms to resume crude oil sales under a temporary US sanctions waiver. The 60-day waiver, granted on June 22 as part of ongoing peace talks between Tehran and Washington, is set to expire on August 21. Three Japanese buyers are currently evaluating potential Iranian oil purchases, which would mark their first since 2019. However, these prospective buyers are reportedly seeking an extended waiver window and firmer guarantees regarding shipping safety before moving forward.
