South Korea’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.16% in late May, moving back toward its highest level since November 2023, after the central bank held rates steady but signaled a more hawkish tilt. The Bank of Korea raised its inflation outlook for this year to 2.7%, up from 2.2% in February, citing higher energy costs following disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, policymakers also lifted the 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% from 2%, reflecting a stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP growth, driven by booming global demand tied to artificial intelligence powering semiconductors. Against this backdrop, the central bank’s dot plot for policy rates six months ahead showed a clear hawkish shift, with two members projecting rates as high as 3.25% in risk scenarios. Most projections clustered around 3%, pointing to expectations of roughly two additional rate hikes over the coming half year.

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