Facts:

• USDPLN has halted its decline and is currently at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (around 3.6325).
• The price remains above a cluster of three exponential moving averages ( EMA 50, 100, 150 ), which have converged within the 3.6325 – 3.6350 range.
• The RSI (14) indicator is hovering around 50.1.

Recommendation:

• Position: Long (BUY) on USDPLN at market price
• Take Profit (TP): 3.6484 (TP1), 3.6606 (TP2)
• Stop Loss (SL): 3.6196

Chart: USDPLN (25.01 – 27.05)

Source: xStation, 27.05.2026

Opinion

The US dollar has undergone a downward correction against the Polish zloty in recent weeks. This movement was primarily driven by a temporary easing of sentiment in global markets following reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. In recent days, however, the positive news has faded, overshadowed by headlines regarding the US shelling of Iranian vessels, as well as reports of subsequent Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Furthermore, in light of higher-than-expected inflation data and signs of labor market resilience, the hawkish fraction of the FOMC is becoming increasingly vocal. At the same time, recent data suggests that the probability of second-round effects occurring in Poland is currently low, which should limit the NBP inclination to raise interest rates. A permanent trend reversal to a clear downward one would require unambiguously positive news from the Middle East or a significant drop in inflation concerns in the US (which could be mitigated to some extent by a substantially lower-than-expected Core PCE inflation reading). The market appears primed for a technical rebound (a so-called return to the primary trend). This signal is further reinforced by the convergence of the exponential moving averages (EMA).

Methodology

This recommendation was prepared based on a technical analysis of the USDPLN chart and a fundamental analysis of the respective economies (monetary policy in the US and Poland). The direction of the recommendation was determined using moving averages. The Take Profit and Stop Loss levels were established using Fibonacci retracements and price action (TP1 at the 23.6% FIBO level, TP2 just below the recent peak, and SL at the 50.0% FIBO level).

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